At first glance, the results reported on Friday from the long-awaited trial of Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine might have seemed disappointing. Its overall efficacy — the ability to prevent moderate and severe disease — was reported at 72 percent in the United States, 66 percent in Latin American countries and 57 percent in South Africa.
Those figures appear far below the high bar set by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, the first two vaccines authorized for emergency use in the United States, which reported overall efficacy from 94 to 95 percent.
Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert and now the lead medical adviser to President Biden on the coronavirus pandemic, acknowledged the striking difference at a briefing on Friday.
“If you woke up and you say, ‘Well, go to the door on the left and you get 94 or 95 percent, go to the door on the right and you get 72 percent,’ which door do you want to go to?” he asked.
But Dr. Fauci said that the more crucial measure was the ability to prevent severe disease, which translates to keeping people out of the hospital and preventing deaths. And that result, for Johnson & Johnson, was 85 percent in all of the countries where it was tested, including South Africa, where a rapidly spreading variant of the virus had shown some ability to elude vaccines.
More important than preventing “some aches and a sore throat,” Dr. Fauci said, is to fend off severe disease, especially in people with underlying conditions and in older adults, who are more likely to become seriously ill and to die from Covid-19.
“If you can prevent severe disease in a high percentage of individuals, that will alleviate so much of the stress in human suffering and death in this epidemic that we’re seeing, particularly now,” Dr. Fauci said, “as we well know, over the last several weeks, our health care system has been stressed by the number of people that require hospitalization, as well as intensive care.”
Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, compared the ability to prevent severe disease to the effects of flu shots, which do not always prevent influenza entirely but can make it less severe.
“The same thing seems to be applying here, in a circumstance where this variant is clearly making it a little tougher to get the most vigorous response that you would want to have,” Dr. Collins said. “But still, for severe disease, it’s looking really good.”
The Moderna vaccine also showed high efficacy, 100 percent, against severe disease. The Pfizer-BioNTech one appeared to as well, but the overall number of severe cases in the study was too small to be sure.
But researchers warn that trying to compare effectiveness between new studies and earlier ones may be misleading, because the virus is evolving quickly and to some extent the trials have studied different pathogens.
“You have to recognize that Pfizer and Moderna had an advantage,” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University, said in an interview. “They did their clinical trials before the variant strains became very apparent. Johnson & Johnson was testing its vaccine not only against the standard strain but they had the variants.”
The best way to stop the spread of mutants and to prevent more new ones from emerging is to vaccinate as many people as quickly as possible, Dr. Fauci and other researchers say. Viruses cannot mutate unless they are replicating, and they cannot replicate unless they can get into cells. Keeping them out by immunizing people can shut down the process.
In addition to the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines already in use in the United States, three more may soon become available: those made by Novavax, Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca. AstraZeneca’s vaccine has already been authorized in Britain and other countries.
Globally, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is expected to play an important role, especially in low and middle-income countries, because it works after just one shot, is relatively inexpensive and is easier to store and distribute than the vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna since it does not share their stringent requirements for freezing and refrigerating.
People waiting to be vaccinated may wonder if they will be able to pick and choose among vaccines, and if they should hold out and wait until the one that looks best to them becomes available.
Currently more than 150 million people — almost half the population — are eligible to be vaccinated. But each state makes the final decision about who goes first. The nation’s 21 million health care workers and three million residents of long-term care facilities were the first to qualify. In mid-January, federal officials urged all states to open up eligibility to everyone 65 and older and to adults of any age with medical conditions that put them at high risk of becoming seriously ill or dying from Covid-19. Adults in the general population are at the back of the line. If federal and state health officials can clear up bottlenecks in vaccine distribution, everyone 16 and older will become eligible as early as this spring or early summer. The vaccine hasn’t been approved in children, although studies are underway. It may be months before a vaccine is available for anyone under the age of 16. Go to your state health website for up-to-date information on vaccination policies in your area
You should not have to pay anything out of pocket to get the vaccine, although you will be asked for insurance information. If you don’t have insurance, you should still be given the vaccine at no charge. Congress passed legislation this spring that bars insurers from applying any cost sharing, such as a co-payment or deductible. It layered on additional protections barring pharmacies, doctors and hospitals from billing patients, including those who are uninsured. Even so, health experts do worry that patients might stumble into loopholes that leave them vulnerable to surprise bills. This could happen to those who are charged a doctor visit fee along with their vaccine, or Americans who have certain types of health coverage that do not fall under the new rules. If you get your vaccine from a doctor’s office or urgent care clinic, talk to them about potential hidden charges. To be sure you won’t get a surprise bill, the best bet is to get your vaccine at a health department vaccination site or a local pharmacy once the shots become more widely available.
That is to be determined. It’s possible that Covid-19 vaccinations will become an annual event, just like the flu shot. Or it may be that the benefits of the vaccine last longer than a year. We have to wait to see how durable the protection from the vaccines is. To determine this, researchers are going to be tracking vaccinated people to look for “breakthrough cases” — those people who get sick with Covid-19 despite vaccination. That is a sign of weakening protection and will give researchers clues about how long the vaccine lasts. They will also be monitoring levels of antibodies and T cells in the blood of vaccinated people to determine whether and when a booster shot might be needed. It’s conceivable that people may need boosters every few months, once a year or only every few years. It’s just a matter of waiting for the data.
Dr. Paul Offit, a vaccine expert at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, told CNN that if there was an abundant supply of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, they would be his first choices because of their higher overall efficacy.
But for now, there is not enough of those vaccines.
If he could not get either the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine or the Moderna one, he would take the Johnson & Johnson shot, Dr. Offit said — as long as the data that the company will be presenting to the Food and Drug Administration looks as good as what the company reported on Friday.
He said Johnson & Johnson’s report of the reduction in severe disease was a powerful selling point.
“That’s what you want,” Dr. Offit said. “You want to stay out of the hospital, and stay out of the morgue.”
He noted that the company was also studying a two-shot regimen, which might raise its efficacy.
People who take the Johnson & Johnson vaccine should be able to safely receive a Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccine later if a booster shot is needed, he said.
But Dr. Schaffner warned that there was no data on the effects of receiving different types of vaccines. “We haven’t studied this,” he said.
Dr. Schaffner said he had just attended a meeting with other public health experts, and they had asked one another what they would tell their spouses or partners to do if they could get the Johnson & Johnson vaccine tomorrow, or had to wait three weeks for Pfizer-BioNTech’s or Moderna’s.
“All of us said, ‘Get the one tomorrow,’” Dr. Schaffner said. “The virus is bad. You’re risking three more weeks of exposure as opposed to getting protection tomorrow.”
He said Johnson & Johnson’s 85 percent efficacy against severe disease was a bit lower than those reported by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, “but it’s still pretty darn high.”