This week has been one for the history books.
Eight days prior, Sacramento broke a different record — the longest dry spell in the city’s history, with 212 days without rain.
It’s a study in contrasts playing out across California. San Francisco, Redding and a handful of other cities have shattered rainfall records in recent days, during a year that has overall been one of the driest and hottest in California’s history.
Experts say the takeaway from the past few days should not be that the drought is over — we would need far more rain for that — but that this is a glimpse into the future of California.
The total precipitation California receives each year is unlikely to change significantly this century, but we will probably experience longer dry seasons and shorter, but more intense, wet seasons because of global warming, according to a 2018 study in the journal Nature Climate Change.
These bursts of rain can be highly destructive.
In the winter of 2016-17, an extreme rainy season in California caused mudslides, the collapse of a major bridge in Big Sur as well as flooding that forced more than 100,000 people near Sacramento to flee their homes.
Though rain is usually welcome in a state prone to drought, downpours immediately after dry spells can be particularly damaging, even deadly.
Droughts parch the land and contribute to more severe fire seasons. So when rain comes, vegetation that would typically hold the soil in place has been either charred or dried out, allowing water to wash the land away.
Scientists call these rapid shifts from extreme dry to extreme wet conditions “precipitation whiplash.” And by the end of the century, they’re expected to increase in frequency by 25 percent in Northern California and to double in Southern California, the study found.
As Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, and the study’s lead author, said on Twitter this week: “It is worth noting that this exact situation—an extremely strong atmospheric river bringing brief period of record rainfall in midst of severe and temperature-amplified drought—is what we expect to see in California with #ClimateChange.”
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