From propagating a range of conspiracy theories to speaking out against transgender women playing in women’s sports, many wonder why Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is running for the Democratic presidential nomination.
However, Kennedy is no stranger to controversy.
He most recently came under fire in August following comments that his presidency would support a federal ban on abortion after the first trimester of pregnancy – a statement that was retracted by his campaign hours later.
The 2024 hopeful has seemingly contradicted himself on a number of issues, including immigration and vaccines. Conflicting statements such as these have been consistent throughout his campaign and have ultimately left onlookers confused about his true thoughts.
“From what I have seen, he is trying to be a Democratic Trump,” said Tammy Vigil, PhD, Senior Associate Dean and Professor of Media Science at Boston University,
“He says outlandish things to gain attention, and it usually works,” Vigil continued. “The press covers his statements no matter how contrary to the facts they are.”
While “his general playbook is more Republican in nature,” Vigil said the “platitudes and vague claims” found on his campaign website make it “difficult to know where exactly he stands.”
R. Craig Sautter, instructor at DePaul University and a political media strategist, said the Kennedy campaign thus far is an “intriguing interjection” of President Joe Biden’s re-election bid.
Sautter said he “is trying to reignite that magic of the Kennedy name and put together a populist campaign that draws Democrats, independents, and some disenchanted Republicans.”
The attention Kennedy has received from the media and the general public alike has not transferred to his performance in the polls – and support for his candidacy is seemingly wavering.
Kennedy polled at 13% in an Aug. 16 poll from Quinnipiac University – a nearly 4% decrease from a June 14 poll – compared to Biden, who received 70% of support. Similarly, FiveThirtyEight’s primary polling average shows Kennedy’s support has declined slowly but steadily since the beginning of summer from over 16% to under 13%, with Biden holding steady with well over 60%.
Why the Democratic nomination?
Perhaps Kennedy’s biggest motivation for running as a Democratic candidate stems from his slim likelihood of success in other parties.
If Kennedy were to seek the Republican nomination, he would likely struggle to gain traction amongst the media and voters given how closely his stances align with others vying for the GOP nomination.
“With Trump still so deeply involved in the primary discussions, he’d likely be drowned out,” said Samara Klar, PhD, Political Science Professor at the University of Arizona’s School of Government and Public Policy.
Kennedy’s right-leaning platform could result in some electorates switching their votes as former president Donald Trump’s legal problems worsen, according to Sautter.
“[Voters] switched from Obama to Trump, so it’s not a stretch to think some will flip from Trump to Kennedy,” he said. “These are voters who are swayed by personality and have anti-establishment allegiances.”
However, Sautter said it is “way too early to measure success.”
Overall, Kennedy would be “lost in the field” if he were to seek out the nomination, according to Vigil. “Other than gaining some talking points for defecting from the Democrats, he wouldn’t have much to differentiate himself from the other candidates,” she said.
Aside from a probable lackluster GOP bid, Kennedy would likely fare similarly as a third party or independent candidate.
Klar said such candidates face “a huge challenge” in convincing voters they are electable, given that the two established parties “offer a relatively cohesive set of policy positions.”
“Most Americans are able to clearly see which set best fits their own views, even if it’s not perfectly matched,” she said.
Additionally, according to Klar, voters dislike the concept of “throwing away” a vote. “They want to vote for someone who has a reasonable chance of winning,” she said.
Ultimately, Vigil said in the U.S. “there is very little to gain for most candidates who run on a third party ticket other than support within the party.”
Attention from the press
Kennedy’s conservative-leaning ideals immediately established him as a fringe candidate – which may be an intentional move for exposure.
He has managed to achieve “a surprising amount of media coverage” despite his “low standing in the polls,” according to Klar.
“Though this is often for reasons one might not seek: controversial statements and even conspiratorial messaging,” Klar said. “But if media attention is his goal, he has managed to achieve it.”
Vigil said she believes Kennedy’s “motivation is to gain attention and be disruptive.”
“His messaging is not at all aligned with traditional Democratic values and he doesn’t seem to be appealing to any reasonably-sized portion of the Democratic core,” she said.
Vigil added that while he could “peel away a certain, small subset of Democratic supporters,” he ultimately “isn’t building a campaign that would actually substantively challenge Biden for the nomination.”
“There is no way he wins the Democratic nomination, but he gets more journalists to cover him and his fringe ideas by running as a Democrat,” she said.
Capitalizing on familial ties
The amount of media coverage may have something to do with his family heritage, according to Vigil, who said it’s “actually a huge disservice to the public that his name warrants such attention.”
“If he were not a Kennedy, he would just be another random candidate that is largely ignored by mainstream news and the vast majority of leaders,” she said, adding that journalists are “drawn to the story of the Kennedy legacy.”
Klar said while he “absolutely benefits from name recognition,” such renown “can only go so far” without familial support. “Largely his family seems to be distancing themselves from him, if not opposing the candidacy entirely,” she said.
Kennedy’s family have been vocal in their opposition to his causes célèbres, from anti-vaccine rhetoric to recent remarks the COVID-19 pandemic was “ethnically targeted” towards certain groups.
Joseph Kennedy II, his brother, condemned the “morally and factually wrong” comments in a statement to The Boston Globe in July. His sister, Kerry Kennedy, issued a statement on behalf of the Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights organization – calling the comments “deplorable and untruthful.”
Vigil said she has observed “disappointment and disapproval” rather than positivity in response to Kennedy’s attempt to use his namesake, adding that it appears as though he is “trying to capitalize on the name and emotional connection but is not upholding the values associated with the Kennedy family.”
Featured image: Photo by Waterkeeper Alliance Inc. via Flicker under Creative Commons license
Edited by: James Sutton
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