MADISON, Wis. — Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., may face her toughest reelection bid yet in 2024. Although she won her first reelection bid in 2018 by more than 10 percent of the vote against State Senator Leah Vukmir, Senate Republican leadership is prepared to pour millions of dollars into this year’s race and take advantage of the current national political climate and Wisconsin’s status as a competitive battleground state. After months of speculation of who Republicans would run and with many Wisconsin GOP congressmen declining to run against Baldwin, a real challenger has finally entered the race.
On Feb. 20, Eric Hovde, a prominent Republican banker, real estate mogul and multimillionaire announced his bid to unseat the two-term Baldwin. Hovde’s bid threatens Democratic majority control of the U.S. Senate. Originally from Madison, Wis., Hovde has built a successful career as a banker and businessman in California over the past few decades. Hovde has pledged millions of dollars of his own personal fortune to the campaign. With his close business ties and residency in California however, Wisconsin Democrats are attacking Hovde over this fact and have suggested he is more fit to represent Californians than Wisconsinites.
These attacks not only highlight the baggage that Hovde brings to the race but also the exorbitant amount of campaign funds he can raise. In addition to the millions of dollars in personal money he has already put into his campaign, Republican Super PACs from all over the country have pledged millions in the effort to unseat Baldwin. Shortly after his Senate run announcement, the Hovde campaign flooded Wisconsin television and radio stations with ads for his campaign and attacks on Sen. Baldwin’s record which highlighted her support for President Joe Biden. Baldwin also took to social media to ask for campaign donations and stated this “will be my most competitive and expensive race yet.”
Despite this prospect, the Baldwin camp doesn’t seem worried about their potential shortfall in fundraising. When reached for comment, a campaign representative stated “Tammy Baldwin is running a people powered, grassroots campaign and she is proud of this face. Tammy has received donations from all 72 counties in Wisconsin.”
Although the Baldwin campaign has managed to raise a substantial amount of funds in recent months, chances are Hovde will hold an extreme advantage in fundraising for the duration of election season. Sen. Baldwin currently holds a seven point lead in an average of the latest polls dating back to April 3, according to RealClearPolling.
There are 23 Democratic-held Senate seats up for grabs in 2024 and Sen. Baldwin’s stands out as one of the most vulnerable. For Democrats to retain control of the Senate, reelecting Baldwin will be one of the most crucial tests. Though Baldwin won by more than comfortable margins during her first reelection bid in 2018 and her initial election in 2012, Senate Republicans are betting big they can flip the seat and add a second Republican senator from Wisconsin.
To acheive this, the Hovde camp has been focusing on a strategy to create a link between Sen. Baldwin’s record with the low nationwide approval ratings of President Biden.
There are many factors that will come into play that must be examined in order to understand the nature of this and other high-profile elections that take place in Wisconsin. The first and most important is Wisconsin is a purple state to its core and therefore extremely competitive for Republican and Democratic candidates alike.
In 2022, incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson survived a strong challenge from then Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes by a single percentage point. In 2020, then-candidate Joe Biden beat incumbent President Donald Trump in Wisonsin by 0.63%. In 2018, current Democratic Gov. Tony Evers defeated long-time incumbent Gov. Scott Walker by 1.1%. In 2016, candidate Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 0.7%. Wisconsin is truly a state of slim election margins. Though Sen. Baldwin has yet to experience a close election outcome in her previous runs for the U.S. Senate, odds are this year may be more of a challenge.
Another factor to consider is the increasing number of split-ticket Wisconsin voters compared to the rest of the country. Though still rare, it is not completely unheard of to see a Trump-Baldwin voter or even a Baldwin-Johnson voter in different election cycles. The secret to Gov. Evers’ reelection in 2022 was winning the support of many otherwise straight Republican ticket voters. The main factor Baldwin has going for her is a relatively high approval rating similar to that of Gov. Evers.
A more recent factor that will have a big impact on the Wisconsin Senate race is the issue of abortion. Baldwin has been a staunch supporter of a woman’s right to choose. Initially, Hovde came out in strong opposition to abortion and held views more aligned to other Republican politicians. Poll after poll, especially in Wisconsin, show this is a losing issue for Republicans, which has forced Hovde to shift to a pro-choice stance. Though it is a risk to flip on such a divisive issue at the beginning of a campaign, the recent Wisconsin Supreme Court election in 2023 shows it is a risk worth taking.
The uncharacteristically partisan Wisconsin Supreme Court race in April 2023 saw a liberal, pro-choice candidate, Judge Janet Protasiewicz, handily defeat the conservative pro-life candidate, former Supreme Court Justice Daniel Kelly, by 11 percentage points. The result of this election set alarm bells off in Wisconsin Republican circles and showed that even many GOP voters did not want to lose the right to choose on abortion. Between the two candidates, it is clear abortion is an issue that Baldwin will win handily as she has already made it a centerpiece for her reelection against Hovde.
Despite all of the factors going for and against her, Sen. Baldwin is set to face the toughest reelection of her political career. She is up against a wealthy and determined opponent in Eric Hovde and has a target on her back placed by Republican leaders in the U.S. Senate. Though she has won by comfortable margins in the past, recent history shows no incumbent is safe when running for reelection in Wisconsin. Though there are also many other high-priority and high-risk races going on this year for Senate Democrats, the Wisconsin race could be one of the closest.
Featured image: Photo courtesy WisPolitics.com via Wikimedia CC BY-SA 2.0 Deed
Edited by: James Sutton
