On Saturday, Sept. 6, President Donald Trump wrote in a social media post, “Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!” Trump’s comments came in the context of the Shanghai Cooperation Summit hosted in Tianjin, China, in which the photo op of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi standing together drew much attention, with many Western observers calling it an “anti-Western” summit.
What this event illustrated was not India being “lost” to China, but rather a reinvigoration of India’s decades-long foreign policy tradition of strategic autonomy in the wake of tensions with the United States.
The escalation of tensions between New Delhi and Washington
While one cause of the current crisis between New Delhi and Washington could be Trump’s anger that Modi did not give him credit for the India-Pakistan ceasefire in May, much of the Trump administration’s complaints against India reflect a key structural tension in the India-U.S. relationship: Russia.
In recent months, the Trump administration has been publicly critical of India’s purchase of Russian oil, insisting that it fuels “Putin’s war” in Ukraine. In late July, Trump posted on Truth Social, saying, “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.” In late August, Trump’s threats of imposing a 50% tariff against India went into effect, with the stated goal of pressuring India to stop buying Russian oil.
The most incendiary comment was when Trump’s trade advisor, Peter Navarro, said to Fox News, “You got Brahmins profiteering at the expense of the Indian people. We need that to stop.” Aside from this statement being factually incorrect, the mere act of bringing in caste illustrates how low the Trump administration has gotten these days in how they treat America’s supposed close allies and partners across Europe and Asia.
In response, the Indian government vehemently pushed back against these statements, arguing that it is unfair for India to be singled out for buying Russian oil, while the Chinese and the European Union have not been singled out. Many within New Delhi also argued it was the Americans themselves who advised the Indians to buy Russian oil, thereby keeping oil prices low in the global market.
Trump’s outburst reflects structural tensions
India’s relationship with Russia dates to the 1950s, when Jawaharlal Nehru enshrined non-alignment as a key pillar of Indian foreign policy. By contrast, the Americans perceived India’s nonalignment to be a proxy for pro-Soviet. Instead, they cultivated close ties with the Pakistanis throughout the Cold War, seeing Islamabad as a “partner” against communism.
The low point of India-U.S. relations was during the 1971 India-Pakistan War, when the Americans sold weapons to the Pakistanis, while the Soviets were a steadfast ally for the Indians. American involvement in the 1971 War continues to shape perceptions within the Indian government. In August, the Eastern Command of the Indian Army posted on X a 1970s newspaper article illustrating U.S. support for Pakistan.
It wasn’t until the 2000s that the frostiness between the Americans and Indians started to decrease. Notably, in July 2008, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh nearly lost his job after finalizing the civilian nuclear deal with the U.S. After Modi took office in 2014, he significantly drew India closer to the U.S., as evidenced by India’s active participation in forums such as the QUAD and the I2U2. Events such as the Howdy Modi rally in Texas highlighted the perception of closeness between the two countries, particularly among Indian Americans.
Nevertheless, tensions between the U.S. and India continued to surface, although without the newspaper headlines. Some of these tensions included America’s continued assistance to Pakistan, India’s close ties with Iran, Trump calling India “filthy” in his first term and most importantly, India’s relations with Russia. Even under the Modi government, India’s nonalignment continued, albeit under a different name called “multi-alignment.”
Consequently, when examining Trump’s public outburst towards India, it merely reflects a lingering tension that has been made public.
India’s tactical thaw with China and outreach to others
Amidst this context, India has been making moves to reduce tensions with China. In August, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited India five years after the clashes at Galwan. Likewise, Modi’s September trip to the SCO summit in China marked his first visit to China since 2018. However, these developments between India and China are more of a tactical thaw, rather than a structural realignment of Indian foreign policy.
To start with, the fundamental tensions between India and China are unresolved, such as their decades-long border dispute. Notably, the Chinese continue to prop up India’s archenemy, the Pakistanis, by giving them financial and military assistance. On a macro-level, India and China continue to compete for influence in South Asia, the Indo-Pacific and the Global South. Considering these foundational issues remain unresolved, India’s outreach to China is a tactical thaw and the India is still proactively engaging with other close partners.
For example, in late August, Modi visited Japan and reached an agreement to increase economic cooperation between the two countries. In early September, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul traveled to India to increase trade ties. According to Reuters, New Delhi is expected to sign a free trade deal with Doha by October. Importantly, according to Reuters and Bloomberg, India and the European Union seek to finalize a free trade agreement by the end of 2025.
At the end of the day, Trump’s erratic personality was something many in New Delhi expected and even prepared for. Thus, India will not simply “abandon” 20-plus years of painstaking diplomacy with the U.S. simply because of what Trump says on Truth Social.
However, equally important for India is this entire crisis serves as a harsh reminder the U.S. is an unreliable partner. This perception of the U.S. is likely to remain unchanged in New Delhi even after Trump leaves office.
Featured image by Asif Methar
Edited by James Sutton & Nancy Martin
