The British think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) held its annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore May 30 to June 1. The Shangri-La dialogue is a forum held every year in Singapore where defense officials, heads of states, journalists, scholars and other prominent individuals can convene to discuss various global issues, like the Russia-Ukraine War, U.S.-China tensions, climate change and economic development.
In this year’s dialogue, French President Emmanuel Macron delivered the keynote address which sought to promote the French vision of the Indo-Pacific by calling for an alliance between Asia and Europe to push back against the great power competition between the U.S. and China. Macron’s speech at Shangri-La reflects the new geopolitical context, in which many countries around the world are facing uncertainty caused by the second Trump administration.
The rising significance of the “Indo-Pacific”
The term “Indo-Pacific” was first used in the 1920s by Karl Haushofer, a German scholar, in his work the “Indopazifischen Raum.” The contemporary usage of the term began in 2007, after the late Japanese Prime Minister’s Shinzo Abe’s speech to the Indian parliament where he said, “We are now at a point at which the Confluence of the Two Seas is coming into being. The Pacific and the Indian Oceans are now bringing about a dynamic coupling as seas of freedom and of prosperity.”
Abe’s 2007 speech came at a time when a growing number of countries started to feel threatened by China’s growing power in the region, such as China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea with its Nine Dash Line.
Over time, a growing number of countries, such as Japan, India and the United States started to use the term “Indo-Pacific” in their official policy documents, replacing the older term “Asia-Pacific.” However, officially, China rejects the term “Indo-Pacific” and uses the word “Asia-Pacific” instead, as they consider the “Indo-Pacific” term a geopolitical construct created by the U.S. and its allies to contain China.
France’s Indo-Pacific vision
France was the first European country to release its Indo-Pacific strategy in 2018 and has since emerged as a key player in the region. What makes France’s Indo-Pacific strategy different from other European countries is that it considers itself to be a “resident power,” not an external power. This perception is due to its overseas territories in the region, such as La Réunion, Nouvelle Calédonie and Mayotte. According to the French Ministre de l’Europe et des Affaires Etrangéres, more than 90% of France’s exclusive economic zones are in the Indo-Pacific, meaning France has the second-largest EEZ, after the United States. Given France’s territories in the region, it serves as a crucial reason for France to be more active in the region both militarily and diplomatically.
At the heart of France’s vision of the Indo-Pacific is the idea of a “third way.” In many respects, it reflects a continuity of French foreign policy dating back to Charles de Gaulle, in which Paris promoted itself as acting as the “third pole” independent of Washington and Moscow and acting independently of the U.S. through its criticism of the Vietnam War and recognizing the People’s Republic of China in 1964.
Likewise, Macron has promoted the concept of puissance d’equilibre, in which France, in tandem with the rest of Europe, is capable of promoting its foreign policy independent of the U.S. and China. In line with this vision, France has been at the forefront of proposing several ambitious ideas. In 2018, President Macron advocated for an “axis” between France, India and Australia to respond against China, which was quickly put aside after the AUKUS incident that caused tensions between the French and Australians.
In 2023, during a visit to China, Macron said Europeans should not be “followers” of American or Chinese foreign policy, specifically regarding Taiwan, promoting backlash from various European and U.S. officials. During his speech at the Shangri-La, Macron pushed for a European-Asian alliance against growing Sino-American geopolitical rivalry.
The situation has changed
In the past, the EU has had difficulty deepening foreign engagement due to the Indo-Pacific’s neutral attitude on the Russia-Ukraine War. For example, in December 2022, the EU and ASEAN were unable to reach an agreement on the conflict, while member-states within ASEAN like Vietnam and Laos maintain good relations with Moscow. Likewise, the EU’s criticism of India’s neutrality on the Russia-Ukraine War has been a source of friction, best illustrated by India’s External Affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s remark India “look[s] for partners not preachers.” Likewise, France’s idea of strategic autonomy was dismissed, as the EU and other European countries still cling to the idea of the “transatlantic alliance.”
However, what has changed in 2025 is the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and events like “Liberation Day” tariffs which elevated skepticism of the U.S. As announced on April 2, the U.S. essentially declared a trade war on the world, including China, the European Union, ASEAN, Japan, India, Madagascar, Lesotho and other countries on the pretext of bringing manufacturing jobs back. The new tariffs have elevated worries among many European and Asian capitals and caused them to reevaluate their excessive dependence on America.
In the context of a growing perception under the Trump administration, the U.S. is not committed to free trade. By adhering to international trade institutions like the WTO, France has sought to position itself as a reliable partner. When visiting Vietnam, Macron said that a rules-based order was essential at a time of great power competition. Likewise, a French official said the EU would adhere to international trade rules, unlike America.
Notably, in his Shangri-La speech, Macron equated the situation in Ukraine with Taiwan by saying if the Russians could take parts of Ukrainian territory with no restrictions, the same could happen in Taiwan. He also admitted even though in the past he opposed NATO having a role in the Indo-Pacific, reports of North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine illustrate the European and Indo-Pacific theaters are becoming interconnected.
While it may have been unthinkable for Macron to compare Ukraine and Taiwan back in 2022, Macron’s sales pitch at Shangri-La highlights that, increasingly, middle powers like France are keen on exerting influence in a tumultuous geopolitical environment.
Featured image: Photo by Kremlin.ru/CC 4.0
Edited by Abbigail Earl & James Sutton
Originally published on June 8, 2025, but modified on July 23, 2025.
